Met predicts normal monsoon this year
PUNE|NEW DELHI: Present weather conditions indicate possibility of a normal monsoon in 2017, although there is a chance of a weak El Niño — a weather phenomenon associated with poor rains in India — emerging towards the end of the rainy season in September, the weather office has said.
However, the monsoon forecast may not remain comfortable if El Niño makes an early appearance.
Having briefly emerged from two back-to-back droughts caused by El Niño conditions, the government is under pressure to take policy decisions about import and export of major commodities.
While there is growing demand to open up export of pulses as prices have dived below the minimum support price, the country is also assessing the need to import sugar as domestic production has declined by 18.5% as on February 28.
India Meteorology Department (IMD) in its latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) update has predicted development of weak El Niño conditions in September. According to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, prospects of El Niño forming this year have increased to 50%.
The Indian weather office has clarified that even if El Niño emerges in September, if other parameters remain as they are now, the country may get a normal monsoon. However, if the next forecast indicates possibility of an early development of El Niño — by July or August — then there could be concerns.
Private forecaster Skymet has predicted El Niño this year. "El Niño is going to be evolving during the monsoon this year, and we must watch out for it. By August- September it will take shape," said Jatin Singh, chief executive officer at Skymet.
Judging strictly by historical patterns, Singh opined that there could be 80% chance of below normal rainfall and 60% chance of drought.
There is a zero chance of excess rainfall this year, he added. Last year, with 97% rainfall, India received a normal monsoon after three years. Monsoon is considered normal between 96% and 104%. Differential heating of the land and the ocean is also an important criteria influencing Indian monsoon rainfall. The Met office has already forecast that the temperature of the Indian land mass are expected to to remain above normal during March, April and May.
"If the present conditions of heating of the Indian land mass, IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole, or difference in sea surface temperature between two places) and ENSO continue, they are conducive for a normal monsoon. The Indian land mass is expected to remain warmer than normal, which helps to get a strong monsoon," said AK Sahai, head of climate research and service at IMD.
Sahai said based on present weather conditions, a weak El Niño is expected to develop in September. However, IOD, which also influences Indian monsoon, is expected to remain neutral during the monsoon season.
Based on the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies exceeding a pre-selected threshold in a certain region of the equatorial Pacific, there are five types of ENSO conditions: full La Niña (-1.0), weak La Niña (-0.5), neutral (-0.5 to +0.5), weak El Niño (+0.5) and strong El Niño (+1.0).
"The present conditions are that of weak La Niña and they will be becoming positive by May," said Sahai.
However, the monsoon forecast may not remain comfortable if El Niño makes an early appearance.
Having briefly emerged from two back-to-back droughts caused by El Niño conditions, the government is under pressure to take policy decisions about import and export of major commodities.
While there is growing demand to open up export of pulses as prices have dived below the minimum support price, the country is also assessing the need to import sugar as domestic production has declined by 18.5% as on February 28.
India Meteorology Department (IMD) in its latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) update has predicted development of weak El Niño conditions in September. According to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, prospects of El Niño forming this year have increased to 50%.
The Indian weather office has clarified that even if El Niño emerges in September, if other parameters remain as they are now, the country may get a normal monsoon. However, if the next forecast indicates possibility of an early development of El Niño — by July or August — then there could be concerns.
Private forecaster Skymet has predicted El Niño this year. "El Niño is going to be evolving during the monsoon this year, and we must watch out for it. By August- September it will take shape," said Jatin Singh, chief executive officer at Skymet.
Judging strictly by historical patterns, Singh opined that there could be 80% chance of below normal rainfall and 60% chance of drought.
There is a zero chance of excess rainfall this year, he added. Last year, with 97% rainfall, India received a normal monsoon after three years. Monsoon is considered normal between 96% and 104%. Differential heating of the land and the ocean is also an important criteria influencing Indian monsoon rainfall. The Met office has already forecast that the temperature of the Indian land mass are expected to to remain above normal during March, April and May.
"If the present conditions of heating of the Indian land mass, IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole, or difference in sea surface temperature between two places) and ENSO continue, they are conducive for a normal monsoon. The Indian land mass is expected to remain warmer than normal, which helps to get a strong monsoon," said AK Sahai, head of climate research and service at IMD.
Sahai said based on present weather conditions, a weak El Niño is expected to develop in September. However, IOD, which also influences Indian monsoon, is expected to remain neutral during the monsoon season.
Based on the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies exceeding a pre-selected threshold in a certain region of the equatorial Pacific, there are five types of ENSO conditions: full La Niña (-1.0), weak La Niña (-0.5), neutral (-0.5 to +0.5), weak El Niño (+0.5) and strong El Niño (+1.0).
"The present conditions are that of weak La Niña and they will be becoming positive by May," said Sahai.
