Currently, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has nearly 3.80 lakh votes in the presidential electoral college. To reach the halfway mark of 5.49 lakh votes, the party needs another 1.7 lakh votes. The over 1 lakh votes of its alliance partners, both at the Centre and in states, reduces this gap to around 70,000 votes. This is where the Uttar Pradesh assembly, with its 403 seats and a total value 83,824 votes to the presidential electoral college, is important.
The President of India is elected by the members of an electoral college that comprises the elected members of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha and elected members of all legislative assemblies, including Delhi and Puducherry. Nominated members, whether of Parliament or legislative assemblies, are not included.
Value of vote for each of the members of the electoral college is decided based on the population census of 1971. Therefore, value of votes differs from state to state. The value of the vote of a legislator from Uttar Pradesh, the state with the largest population, is the highest at 208, while Sikkim’s is the lowest at 7.
The Modi government would hope to meet this shortfall of 70,000 votes by winning as many seats as possible in Uttar Pradesh. It would also need to compensate from UP the likely losses that the BJP and ally Shiromani Akali Dal could suffer in Punjab. A good showing in Uttar Pradesh would also deflate the Opposition and help Modi government strategists persuade fence sitters among the regional parties to vote for the ruling coalition's candidate.
Around 150-seats in UP would deliver BJP 31,200 votes in the presidential electoral college, while 100 seats would get it 20,800 seats in the electoral college.
To get the rest of the votes, the Modi government strategists can then reach out to such potential allies as the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). The AIADMK has a total of 50 seats (37 in Lok Sabha and 13 in Rajya Sabha) in Parliament - a total value 35,400 votes. In addition, its 135 legislators in the Tamil Nadu assembly have a total electoral college value of 23,760.
The presidential poll, to elect the successor to incumbent Pranab Mukherjee, are due by July. Several possible successors have been talked about in the media and among party circles. These include senior leader Murli Manohar Joshi, Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, or Dalit faces like Social Justice and Empowerment Minister Thawarchand Gehlot and academician Narendra Jadhav.
But much would depend on the results to the five assembly polls – whether the Modi government can push through its nominee or forced to go for a consensus candidate.
Presidential Electoral College
Total MLAs 4120
Total value of votes of MLAs 549,474
Total MPs 776 (543 LS + 233 RS)
Total value of votes of MPs 5,49,408
(Value of each vote of MP = Total value of votes for the state total members in Parliament = 549474776 = 708)
Grand total 4896 (4120+776) = (549,474 + 5,49,408) 1,098,882
Majority in presidential election 1,098,8822 = 549,441 (+ 1)
| House (total strength) | Value of each vote | BJP seats in the House | BJP seats x value of votes = total value of BJP votes in the House | NDA allies/potential allies | |
| Lok Sabha 543 | 708 | 283 (including Speaker) | 708 x 283 = 200,364 | 54 seats x 708 = 38,232 | |
| Rajya Sabha 233 | 708 | 56 | 708 x 56 = 39,648 | 18 seats x 708 = 12,744 | |
| 1 | Jammu and Kashmir | 72 | 25 | 72 x 25 = 1,800 | PDP 28 seats x 72 = 2,016 |
| 2 | Haryana | 112 | 47 | 112 x 47 = 5,264 | - |
| 3 | Himachal Pradesh | 51 | 26 | 51 x 26 = 1,326 | - |
| 4 | Delhi | 58 | 3 | 58 x 3 = 174 | - |
| 5 | Rajasthan | 129 | 163 | 129 x 163 = 21,027 | - |
| 6 | Gujarat | 147 | 115 | 147 x 115 = 16,905 | - |
| 7 | Maharashtra | 175 | 122 | 175 x 122 = 21,350 | Shiv Sena 63 seats x 175 = 11,214 |
| 8 | Karnataka | 131 | 40 | 131 x 40 = 5,240 | - |
| 9 | Kerala | 152 | 1 | 152 x 1 = 152 | - |
| 10 | Tamil Nadu | 176 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana) | 148 | 9 | 148 x 9 = 1,332 | TDP 116 + TRS 63 x 148 =26,492 |
| 12 | Madhya Pradesh | 131 | 165 | 131 x 165 = 21,615 | |
| 13 | Chhattisgarh | 129 | 49 | 129 x 49 = 6,321 | |
| 14 | Odisha | 149 | 10 | 149 x 10 = 1,490 | |
| 15 | West Bengal | 151 | 3 | 151 x 3 = 453 | |
| 16 | Jharkhand | 176 | 35 | 176 x 35 = 6,160 | 5 |
| 17 | Bihar | 173 | 53 | 173 x 53 = 9,169 | 5 |
| 18 | Assam | 116 | 60 | 116 x 60 = 6,960 | AGP 14 + BPF 12 x 116 = 3,016 |
| 19 | Arunachal Pradesh | 8 | 47 | 8 x 47 = 376 | |
| 20 | Sikkim | 7 | 0 | 0 | SDF 22 x 7 = 154 |
| 21 | Tripura | 26 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | Nagaland | 9 | 1 | 9 x 1 = 9 | |
| 23 | Mizoram | 8 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | Meghalaya | 17 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | Pondicherry | 16 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | Manipur* | 18 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | Goa* | 20 | 21 | 20 x 21 = 420 | |
| 28 | Uttarakhand* | 64 | 31 | 64 x 31 = 1,984 | |
| 29 | Punjab* | 116 | 12 | 116 x 12 = 1,392 | SAD 56 x 116 = 6,496 |
| 30 | Uttar Pradesh* | 208 | 47 | 208 x 47 = 9,776 | |
| - | - | Total BJP votes = 380,707 | Total allies vote = 100,364 | ||
| Grand Total | 380,707 + 100,364 = 481,071 | ||||
Note: Party strengths calculated according to the seat tally at the time of the latest assembly election in any given state, and does not incorporate later changes.
*Seat shares in Manipur, Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh are set to change after the ongoing assembly polls in these states.
Source: Election Commission of India