The likelihood of an El Nino developing later this year has increased, according to the latest update by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

The Bureau has put its El Nino tracker back to a 'watch' position, estimating the probability of its recurrence at 50 per cent as of now.

EL NINO WATCH

The ocean and atmospheric features in the Equatorial Pacific currently are suggestive of a 'neutral' status but recent changes raise the probability of an El Nino forming in 2017.

The Application Laboratory of the Japanese national forecaster Jamstec has already come out with an outlook suggestive of the likely warming of the Equatorial East of the Pacific.

Both these forecasts are in dire contrast to expectations that the year 2016 El Nino was likely to be followed by a La Nina, which reverses the conditions in the Pacific.

A La Nina has often been accompanied by heavy rain and flooding in parts of India, resulting in normal to excess monsoon.

In previous forecasts, the Australian Bureau had emphatically ruled the formation of a La Nina this year. It has now gone one step ahead to post a lookout of an El Nino instead.

INDIAN OCEAN OUTLOOK

The Bureau has also said that nearer home, the Indian Ocean would likely witness 'neutral' conditions, with the warming of the ocean waters in the East and West of the basin balancing out each other.

But the Japanese forecaster had said that the Indian Ocean is likely to see a 'dipole' event that mimics El Nino-La Nina in the backyard of mainland India.

This dipole event is also likely to be 'positive' (warming of West Indian Ocean relative to the East), which is helpful for the monsoon here.

It remains to be seen whether the event would turn positive to the desirable degree as to neutralise El Nino's impact on the monsoon.

Because it happens closer to the monsoon theatre, the Indian Ocean Dipole event is believed to wield more influence on rainfall locally than an El Nino/La Nina in the Pacific.