Big lesson from Maharashtra: Congress in danger of extinction
It is often said by scientists and experts that extinction-like events don't come upon you suddenly. There are enough warning signs leading up to what may be an event of cataclysmic, historical importance. In the arena of politics, extinction or irrelevance of a prominent political party with a long history of dominance often has a tsunami-like impact on the political landscape. The Communist capitulation in West Bengal in 2011 was probably foretold by some sharp electoral observers but the scale and intensity of Mamta Banerjee’s victory and her subsequent reelection in 2016 brought into sharp relief the left parties’ devastating implosion.
The Congress party is in a similar position to that of the Communists today. The humiliating defeat in Maharashtra comes in the backdrop of a similar collapse in Odisha a few days ago and its continuing inability to win power in major states. This may change to some extent on March 11 if the Cong does well in Punjab or manages to retain power in Uttarakhand or regain it in Goa but the signs are not promising. AAP’s rising tide is threatening to sink Captain Amarinder boat in Punjab and reports from UP about the SP-Cong alliance performance are not encouraging.
But even before March 11, voters in Maharashtra have dealt it a hammer blow. Firstly, the party was unable to make any impact in the four-phase nagar palika elections in November-December in various parts of the state. It lost many seats and towns and panchayats to the BJP and the trend has continued in Mumbai and other major cities.
The grand old party is third in the maximum city and has been knocked out of contention in almost every major city in the state. The BJP, on the other hand, is neck-and-neck with the Shiv Sena in Mumbai and has won or is the single largest party in every city except Thane and Ulhasnagar.
The party suffers from various problems. There are no popular leaders to campaign and inspire cadres and grassroot activists. The organisation network is weak and motivation levels are down in the dumps. More importantly, there is no message. The Congress and its ally NCP completely failed to exploit whatever anger there was against demonetisation in Mumbai and allowed Sena to walk away with whatever was left of the anti-incumbency vote. The fact that Sena’s Muslim candidate won in the Muslim dominated Behrampada ward in Bandra East is a telling example of how much the Congress has fallen in the minds of the voters.
The ongoing state elections are extremely crucial for the Congress. If they don't win at least one state and put up a decent show in one or two others, the future looks extremely bleak. Apart from victory in Bihar, where they piggybacked on Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar’s JD (U), the Congress has nothing to show for. They have lost almost all the elections they have contested including municipal polls in places Odisha where the BJP was considered to be very strong.
In 2004, two states were largely responsible for the Congress UPA victory. Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. In 2009, the picture remained very much the same. In 2014, along with UP, the BJP’s success rested largely on Maharashtra. Today, Maharashtra has for fourth time in three years reaffirmed its faith in saffron. If UP also does the same on March 11, the Congress party strategists and leaders will have a lot of explaining to do. It may soon be late to rescue the party from irrelevance.
The Congress party is in a similar position to that of the Communists today. The humiliating defeat in Maharashtra comes in the backdrop of a similar collapse in Odisha a few days ago and its continuing inability to win power in major states. This may change to some extent on March 11 if the Cong does well in Punjab or manages to retain power in Uttarakhand or regain it in Goa but the signs are not promising. AAP’s rising tide is threatening to sink Captain Amarinder boat in Punjab and reports from UP about the SP-Cong alliance performance are not encouraging.
But even before March 11, voters in Maharashtra have dealt it a hammer blow. Firstly, the party was unable to make any impact in the four-phase nagar palika elections in November-December in various parts of the state. It lost many seats and towns and panchayats to the BJP and the trend has continued in Mumbai and other major cities.
The grand old party is third in the maximum city and has been knocked out of contention in almost every major city in the state. The BJP, on the other hand, is neck-and-neck with the Shiv Sena in Mumbai and has won or is the single largest party in every city except Thane and Ulhasnagar.
The party suffers from various problems. There are no popular leaders to campaign and inspire cadres and grassroot activists. The organisation network is weak and motivation levels are down in the dumps. More importantly, there is no message. The Congress and its ally NCP completely failed to exploit whatever anger there was against demonetisation in Mumbai and allowed Sena to walk away with whatever was left of the anti-incumbency vote. The fact that Sena’s Muslim candidate won in the Muslim dominated Behrampada ward in Bandra East is a telling example of how much the Congress has fallen in the minds of the voters.
The ongoing state elections are extremely crucial for the Congress. If they don't win at least one state and put up a decent show in one or two others, the future looks extremely bleak. Apart from victory in Bihar, where they piggybacked on Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar’s JD (U), the Congress has nothing to show for. They have lost almost all the elections they have contested including municipal polls in places Odisha where the BJP was considered to be very strong.
In 2004, two states were largely responsible for the Congress UPA victory. Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. In 2009, the picture remained very much the same. In 2014, along with UP, the BJP’s success rested largely on Maharashtra. Today, Maharashtra has for fourth time in three years reaffirmed its faith in saffron. If UP also does the same on March 11, the Congress party strategists and leaders will have a lot of explaining to do. It may soon be late to rescue the party from irrelevance.
