Uttar Pradesh polls: How people will 'vote their caste'
NEW DELHI/SINGAPORE: Uttar Pradesh is voting in the biggest democratic election anywhere in the world this year. If it were a country, Uttar Pradesh - with a population of nearly 220 million - would be the world's fifth-largest.
Even though India today is a vibrant democracy, politics in the battleground state is still influenced by the Hindu caste system, a social hierarchy with its origins in antiquity.
Figuring out which party can win in Uttar Pradesh depends on a complex equation of so-called "vote-bank" politics. Or, as a famous Indian saying goes: "It's not how you cast your vote, but how you vote your caste."
It's shaping up to be a three-cornered contest. Each party needs to shore up its core support - and grab votes from rivals - to stand a chance of winning.
The ruling Samajwadi Party (SP), led by youthful Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, is seeking re-election in voting that is being held in seven stages - starting in the West and moving East - that run until March 8.
He is up against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is in opposition in the state assembly but swept Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 general election. The third main contender is the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) led by Mayawati, who was chief minister in Uttar Pradesh from 2007-2012.
Indian elections are based on Britain's first-past-the-post system. In a triangular contest, the party or coalition that wins a vote share significantly above 30 percent can win by a landslide. Results are due on March 11.
" Votebank " politics
Figuring out which party can win in Uttar Pradesh depends on complex caste equations and what political strategists call “votebank” politics. Or, as the saying goes: It’s not how you cast your vote, but how you vote your caste.
2012 ASSEMBLY ELECTION
The Samajwadi Party (SP) managed to win despite securing just 29 percent of the vote, with support from its core Yadav and Muslim voters.
2014 GENERAL ELECTION
It was a different story in the 2014 national election. Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept the state with strong support from its core upper-caste constituency and gains among the OBCs.
2017: The three-cornered contest
In this year's assembly election, it's shaping up to be a three-cornered contest: the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP), led by youthful Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav in alliance with the Congress party; Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP); and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) led by Mayawati, who was chief minister in the state from 2007-2012.
CORE SUPPORTERS
To win the election, each party first needs to shore up its core support.
SWING VOTERS
The big questions in this assembly election are whether BJP can pull off a repeat of its stunning general election result three years ago – or whether voters will revert to voting more along caste lines. The contest is all about floating voters. The SP wants to hold on to its Muslim voters and needs to outpoll the BJP among the OBCs.
For the BJP, a strong showing among its core upper-caste voters and the OBCs is the path to victory. The BSP has fielded a large number of Muslim candidates and wants to chisel that voter group away from the SP.
Path to victory
Based on the latest CSDS survey findings, it looks as though the SP-INC alliance would have enough votes to come first – potentially repeating the success of an anti-Modi "grand coalition" that handed the BJP a stinging defeat in the northern state of Bihar in 2015. But there are paths to victory for the other two players.
Notes: The results of a national caste census in 2011 have not yet been published. The voter breakdown in Uttar Pradesh was based on a 2017 analysis by AK Verma of the Centre for the Study of Society and Politics in Kanpur; Polling data is from Uttar Pradesh Pre-Election Tracker Survey Round 3 (Jan 17-23), sample size 6,481, error margin +/-1.7%. SP polling result is for SP-INC alliance.
Sources: Uttar Pradesh Pre-Election Tracker Survey, the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS); Development and Governance Trump Caste Identities in Uttar Pradesh
Even though India today is a vibrant democracy, politics in the battleground state is still influenced by the Hindu caste system, a social hierarchy with its origins in antiquity.
Figuring out which party can win in Uttar Pradesh depends on a complex equation of so-called "vote-bank" politics. Or, as a famous Indian saying goes: "It's not how you cast your vote, but how you vote your caste."
It's shaping up to be a three-cornered contest. Each party needs to shore up its core support - and grab votes from rivals - to stand a chance of winning.
The ruling Samajwadi Party (SP), led by youthful Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, is seeking re-election in voting that is being held in seven stages - starting in the West and moving East - that run until March 8.
He is up against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is in opposition in the state assembly but swept Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 general election. The third main contender is the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) led by Mayawati, who was chief minister in Uttar Pradesh from 2007-2012.
Indian elections are based on Britain's first-past-the-post system. In a triangular contest, the party or coalition that wins a vote share significantly above 30 percent can win by a landslide. Results are due on March 11.
" Votebank " politics
Figuring out which party can win in Uttar Pradesh depends on complex caste equations and what political strategists call “votebank” politics. Or, as the saying goes: It’s not how you cast your vote, but how you vote your caste.
2012 ASSEMBLY ELECTION
The Samajwadi Party (SP) managed to win despite securing just 29 percent of the vote, with support from its core Yadav and Muslim voters.
2014 GENERAL ELECTION
It was a different story in the 2014 national election. Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept the state with strong support from its core upper-caste constituency and gains among the OBCs.
2017: The three-cornered contest
In this year's assembly election, it's shaping up to be a three-cornered contest: the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP), led by youthful Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav in alliance with the Congress party; Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP); and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) led by Mayawati, who was chief minister in the state from 2007-2012.
CORE SUPPORTERS
To win the election, each party first needs to shore up its core support.
SWING VOTERS
The big questions in this assembly election are whether BJP can pull off a repeat of its stunning general election result three years ago – or whether voters will revert to voting more along caste lines. The contest is all about floating voters. The SP wants to hold on to its Muslim voters and needs to outpoll the BJP among the OBCs.
For the BJP, a strong showing among its core upper-caste voters and the OBCs is the path to victory. The BSP has fielded a large number of Muslim candidates and wants to chisel that voter group away from the SP.
Path to victory
Based on the latest CSDS survey findings, it looks as though the SP-INC alliance would have enough votes to come first – potentially repeating the success of an anti-Modi "grand coalition" that handed the BJP a stinging defeat in the northern state of Bihar in 2015. But there are paths to victory for the other two players.
Notes: The results of a national caste census in 2011 have not yet been published. The voter breakdown in Uttar Pradesh was based on a 2017 analysis by AK Verma of the Centre for the Study of Society and Politics in Kanpur; Polling data is from Uttar Pradesh Pre-Election Tracker Survey Round 3 (Jan 17-23), sample size 6,481, error margin +/-1.7%. SP polling result is for SP-INC alliance.
Sources: Uttar Pradesh Pre-Election Tracker Survey, the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS); Development and Governance Trump Caste Identities in Uttar Pradesh
