Mumbai: Whoever wins Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, India’s richest civic body, one thing is for sure: politics in Maharashtra won't be the same after 23 February, when election results for 10 municipal corporations and 15 zilla parishads are out.
In particular, the outcome of the BMC election will open up several possibilities, including a possible mid-term assembly election in the state, politicians from all major parties and analysts say.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena are allies in the state government and at the centre, and have jointly ruled BMC since 1997, but are rivals in the civic elections on 21 February. During the campaign, Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray has repeatedly said that his ministers could pull out of the state government any moment. On 26 January, when Thackeray called off the alliance with BJP for the civic polls, he said the Shiv Sena would henceforth contest all elections on its own. This means that in the event of mid-term polls, the BJP and Shiv Sena may face off again, like they did in the 2014 assembly elections.
Also, if the Shiv Sena withdraws support to the state government, it will automatically mark its exit from the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the centre.
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The Shiv Sena is the BJP’s oldest ally and was the first to join the NDA when it was formed in 1998.
“The most opportune moment for Shiv Sena to withdraw its support to BJP would be on 23 February itself when the results are out and if Shiv Sena has done too well in Mumbai and other cities like Thane and Nashik,” said a senior BJP leader, requesting anonymity.
The BJP leader, however, added that if the Shiv Sena fares poorly in Mumbai and elsewhere, it may not take the risk of “forcing mid-term polls and facing people”.
“The whole situation depends on who gets the momentum after the results,” he said.
The only situation in which the status quo is likely to continue is both BJP and Shiv Sena winning 80-85 seats each in the BMC, he said.
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) Sharad Pawar on Saturday said he was ready to give a written assurance that the NCP “would not support any party” in the event of Shiv Sena pulling out. “The position that the Shiv Sena has taken during the campaign makes me think that it won’t continue to support the BJP in state. In that situation, we will not support any party and we are ready for mid-term polls,” Pawar said.
In the 288-member Maharashtra legislative assembly, the BJP has 122 members and Shiv Sena 63. The Congress has 42 and NCP 41. There are seven independent members of the legislative assembly (MLAs); smaller parties account for the rest.
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On Saturday, The Times of India quoted chief minister Devendra Fadnavis as saying that “my government will survive even if the Sena pulls out. Getting the support of some 25 MLAs to keep the government afloat is no big deal. But I have my doubts about the Sena pulling out.”
Deepak Pawar, professor of political science at the Mumbai university, feels “the most sensible and logical thing to do for Uddhav Thackeray irrespective of the outcome of elections is to withdraw support”.
“My sense is that the Shiv Sena lost some credibility by delaying this decision to pull out. In this election though, Thackeray has gained a lot of credibility among Shiv Sena cadres by his aggressive, Balasaheb Thackeray-like posturing. If he continues to support BJP even after elections, he stands to lose this credibility again,” Pawar said. He says both Shiv Sena and BJP have “gone overboard” in their campaign against each other and nearly reached a point of no return.
“If the Shiv Sena quits government and Sharad Pawar stays true to his word, there will be mid-term polls,” said the analyst.
A Shiv Sena functionary said, requesting anonymity, that a clear signal for the party to withdraw support and force mid-term polls would come from “a very good performance in Mumbai election”. “If we win 95-plus seats in Mumbai and do well in other cities as well as zilla parishads, it will obviously be an endorsement of our position against BJP. In Mumbai, if BJP fails to get past 55-60 seats against 95-plus seats for us, then that would be a clear vote of no-confidence in the BJP government by the people of Mumbai,” he said.
