UP polls: Hung verdict gains ground as BSP show may be underrated
NEW DELHI: Amid growing talks that the Uttar Pradesh elections may throw a hung verdict, there is a perception that the media has underestimated the strength of BSP and its supremo Mayawati, who is running a low-key campaign and making all efforts to win over Muslims to add to her Dalit vote-base.
Though most people have seen through BJP Chief Amit Shah’s remarks that in the first two phases the main contest for his party is with BSP, the earlier view expressed by Shah that Mayawati will come a distant third is also being discounted now.
Her gamble of fielding 97 Muslim candidates is likely to pay off in constituencies where SP has fielded a weak candidate. BSP stands on a stronger wicket in many of the 105 seats that Congress is fighting as a part of the alliance.
While the non-Jatav Dalits are showing a preference for BJP, the Jatav-Muslim combination can make BSP invincible in a sizable number of seats. Jatavs constitute more than 50% of Dalit votes.
However, Mayawati is nowhere near the support she enjoyed in 2007 when BSP won 206 of the 403 seats in UP.
Her supporters maintain that even in 2007 there were predictions in the media that it would be a hung Assembly. Her voter are usually silent but very sincere about casting their vote, making prepoll predictions difficult.
Though there is a newfound aggression among Dalits, they are still reluctant to speak their mind on who they will vote for.
The social engineering formula adopted by Mayawati in 2007, under which she successfully courted the Brahmin votes, is now weakened as BJP is said to be their first choice. But some of the Brahmin candidates fielded by BSP are in a position to win, according to ground reports. Mayawati has ensured that her rallies are well attended.
She has been running a low key campaign, especially in the press and the social media unlike BJP, SP and Congress who are aggressive.
There has also been a noticeable change in Mayawati who has apologized for her wrong doings as chief minister — mainly construction of huge parks at tax payers’ money.
BJP and BSP supporters in several constituencies maintain that in case of a hung Assembly the old arrangement of supporting Mayawati for chief ministership can be adopted to keep SP and Congress out.
Though most people have seen through BJP Chief Amit Shah’s remarks that in the first two phases the main contest for his party is with BSP, the earlier view expressed by Shah that Mayawati will come a distant third is also being discounted now.
Her gamble of fielding 97 Muslim candidates is likely to pay off in constituencies where SP has fielded a weak candidate. BSP stands on a stronger wicket in many of the 105 seats that Congress is fighting as a part of the alliance.
While the non-Jatav Dalits are showing a preference for BJP, the Jatav-Muslim combination can make BSP invincible in a sizable number of seats. Jatavs constitute more than 50% of Dalit votes.
However, Mayawati is nowhere near the support she enjoyed in 2007 when BSP won 206 of the 403 seats in UP.
Her supporters maintain that even in 2007 there were predictions in the media that it would be a hung Assembly. Her voter are usually silent but very sincere about casting their vote, making prepoll predictions difficult.
Though there is a newfound aggression among Dalits, they are still reluctant to speak their mind on who they will vote for.
The social engineering formula adopted by Mayawati in 2007, under which she successfully courted the Brahmin votes, is now weakened as BJP is said to be their first choice. But some of the Brahmin candidates fielded by BSP are in a position to win, according to ground reports. Mayawati has ensured that her rallies are well attended.
She has been running a low key campaign, especially in the press and the social media unlike BJP, SP and Congress who are aggressive.
There has also been a noticeable change in Mayawati who has apologized for her wrong doings as chief minister — mainly construction of huge parks at tax payers’ money.
BJP and BSP supporters in several constituencies maintain that in case of a hung Assembly the old arrangement of supporting Mayawati for chief ministership can be adopted to keep SP and Congress out.
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