Why BJP still banks on its west Uttar Pradesh gains
NEW DELHI: The political stakes are as high as they can be for every major player in the UP assembly polls, but even by those high standards, the areas that vote in the first phase on Saturday are particularly crucial.
That's because this western part of the state saw the most dramatic upsurge for the BJP in 2014 after a very weak showing two years earlier.
Numbers tell the story of this remarkable turnaround. In the 2012 assembly polls, the BJP won 11 of these 73 seats. In 2014 it led in an astounding 68 of them. The swing of votes in its favour was no less stunning.
From a mere 16.3% in 2012, its vote share jumped to 50.4% in 2014, a share that would be impressive anywhere, but even more so in a four-cornered fight. What that means is that the BJP could lose huge chunks of the votes it won in 2014 and still dominate the region.
Even if it were to lose 15 percentage points, for instance, it'll still have a vote share of over 35%, more than any party won in 2012. Is it possible then that the party could fall even lower than that?
Impossible as it might sound, just remember it gained 34 percentage points between 2012 and 2014. So losing even more than 15 percentage points isn't as outlandish as it seems.
For the SP, this has traditionally been a weaker region than others. Even in 2012, when it won majority, the party won 24 of the 73 seats here and a vote share that was 5.5 percentage points lower than the BSP's. But that's where the alliance with Congress could come in handy. The Congress contested both the 2012 and 2014 polls in alliance with Ajit Singh's RLD, but the tie-up with the SP is clearly more potent.
For Mayawati's party, west UP is a stronger region than most others. The BSP was the leading vote getter here even in 2012, though it won only as many seats as SP. Indeed, the BSP was the party to beat on most seats.
But the communal polarisation of 2014 saw it reduced to third spot and not leading in a single segment. With reports suggesting the level of communal tension is distinctly lower now, Mayawati will hope her traditional voters will return to the fold. She is also pinning her hopes on a Dalit-Muslim coalition emerging. Whether that succeeds could well be the deciding factor in the polls in this part of the state.
That's because this western part of the state saw the most dramatic upsurge for the BJP in 2014 after a very weak showing two years earlier.
Numbers tell the story of this remarkable turnaround. In the 2012 assembly polls, the BJP won 11 of these 73 seats. In 2014 it led in an astounding 68 of them. The swing of votes in its favour was no less stunning.
From a mere 16.3% in 2012, its vote share jumped to 50.4% in 2014, a share that would be impressive anywhere, but even more so in a four-cornered fight. What that means is that the BJP could lose huge chunks of the votes it won in 2014 and still dominate the region.
Even if it were to lose 15 percentage points, for instance, it'll still have a vote share of over 35%, more than any party won in 2012. Is it possible then that the party could fall even lower than that?
Impossible as it might sound, just remember it gained 34 percentage points between 2012 and 2014. So losing even more than 15 percentage points isn't as outlandish as it seems.
For the SP, this has traditionally been a weaker region than others. Even in 2012, when it won majority, the party won 24 of the 73 seats here and a vote share that was 5.5 percentage points lower than the BSP's. But that's where the alliance with Congress could come in handy. The Congress contested both the 2012 and 2014 polls in alliance with Ajit Singh's RLD, but the tie-up with the SP is clearly more potent.
For Mayawati's party, west UP is a stronger region than most others. The BSP was the leading vote getter here even in 2012, though it won only as many seats as SP. Indeed, the BSP was the party to beat on most seats.
But the communal polarisation of 2014 saw it reduced to third spot and not leading in a single segment. With reports suggesting the level of communal tension is distinctly lower now, Mayawati will hope her traditional voters will return to the fold. She is also pinning her hopes on a Dalit-Muslim coalition emerging. Whether that succeeds could well be the deciding factor in the polls in this part of the state.
